Patient-centered connectivity-based prediction of tau pathology spread in Alzheimer’s disease
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In Alzheimer's disease (AD), the Braak staging scheme suggests a stereotypical tau spreading pattern that does, however, not capture interindividual variability in tau deposition. This complicates the prediction of tau spreading, which may become critical for defining individualized tau-PET readouts in clinical trials. Since tau is assumed to spread throughout connected regions, we used functional connectivity to improve tau spreading predictions over Braak staging methods. We included two samples with longitudinal tau-PET from controls and AD patients. Cross-sectionally, we found connectivity of tau epicenters (i.e., regions with earliest tau) to predict estimated tau spreading sequences. Longitudinally, we found tau accumulation rates to correlate with connectivity strength to patient-specific tau epicenters. A connectivity-based, patient-centered tau spreading model improved the assessment of tau accumulation rates compared to Braak stage-specific readouts and reduced sample sizes by ~40% in simulated tau-targeting interventions. Thus, connectivity-based tau spreading models may show utility in clinical trials.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it