High risk of growth cessation of planted larch under extreme drought
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Larch trees are widely used in afforestation and timber plantations. Yet, little is known on how planted larch trees cope with increasing drought. We used a tree-ring network of 818 trees from 31 plantations spanning most of the distribution of Larix principis-rupprechtii to investigate how extreme drought influences larch radial growth in northern China. We found that summer drought, rather than temperature or precipitation, had the strongest relationship with radial growth throughout the region. Drought increased in frequency in recent decades, leaving a strong imprint on the radial growth of larch, particularly in dry sites. Across its distribution, radial growth in larch trees that experienced extreme droughts more frequently displayed lower resistance to drought, but higher recovery after it, suggesting these populations were better adapted to extreme droughts. Radial growth decreased with increasing drought, with particularly severe declines below a threshold Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) value of −3 to −3.5. Extreme droughts (PDSI < −4.5) caused a reduction of 62% of radial growth and chronic drought events caused around 20% reduction in total radial growth compared with mean growth on the driest sites. Given that current climate projections for northern China indicate a strong increase in the frequency and severity of extreme drought, trees in large portions of the largest afforestation project in the world, particularly those in the drier edge, are likely to experience severe growth reductions in the future.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it