Prioritisation of areas for early detection of southward movement of arctic fox rabies based on historical surveillance data in Quebec, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Arctic rabies virus variant (ARVV) is enzootic in Quebec (Canada) north of the 55th parallel. With climate change, increased risk of re-incursion of ARVV in more densely populated southern regions raises public and animal health concerns. The objective of this study was to prioritise geographical areas to target for an early detection of ARVV incursion south of the 55th parallel based on the historical spatio-temporal trends of reported rabies in foxes in Quebec. Descriptive analyses of fox rabies cases from 1953 to 2017 were conducted. Three periods show increases in the number of fox rabies cases in southern regions and indicate incursion from northern areas or neighbouring provinces. The available data, particularly in central and northern regions of the province, were scarce and of low spatial resolution, making it impossible to identify the path of spread with precision. Hence, we investigated the use of multiple criteria, such as historical rabies cases, human population density and red fox (Vulpes vulpes) relative abundance, to prioritise areas for enhanced surveillance. This study underscores the need to define and maintain new criteria for selecting samples to be analysed in order to detect rapidly ARVV cases outside the current enzootic area and any potential re-incursion of the virus into central and southern regions of the province.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".