Statistical Considerations for Drawing Conclusions About Recovery
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have found associations when change scores are regressed onto initial impairments in people with stroke (slopes ≈ 0.7). However, there are important statistical considerations that limit the conclusions we can draw about recovery from these studies. OBJECTIVE: To provide an accessible checklist of conceptual and analytical issues on longitudinal measures of stroke recovery. Proportional recovery is an illustrative example, but these considerations apply broadly to studies of change over time. METHODS: Using a pooled data set of n = 373 Fugl-Meyer Assessment upper extremity scores, we ran simulations to illustrate 3 considerations: (1) how change scores can be problematic in this context; (2) how "nil" and nonzero null-hypothesis significance tests can be used; and (3) how scale boundaries can create the illusion of proportionality, whereas other analytical procedures (eg, post hoc classifications) can augment this problem. RESULTS: Our simulations highlight several limitations of common methods for analyzing recovery. We find that uniform recovery leads to similar group-level statistics (regression slopes) and individual-level classifications (into fitters and nonfitters) that have been claimed as evidence for the proportional recovery rule. New analyses, however, also speak to the complexities in variance about the regression slope. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight that one cannot identify whether proportional recovery is true or not based on commonly used methods. We illustrate how these techniques, measurement tools, and post hoc classifications (eg, nonfitters) can create spurious results. Going forward, the field needs to carefully consider the influence of these factors on how we measure, analyze, and conceptualize recovery.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.589 | 0.861 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.006 | 0.009 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.010 | 0.012 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.028 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.012 | 0.017 |
| Open science | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| Research integrity | 0.013 | 0.030 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".