Time between milestone events in the Alzheimer's disease amyloid cascade
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Estimate the time-course of the spread of key pathological markers and the onset of cognitive dysfunction in Alzheimer's disease. METHODS: In a cohort of 335 older adults, ranging in cognitive functioning, we estimated the time of initial changes of Aβ, tau, and decreases in cognition with respect to the time of Aβ-positivity. RESULTS: Small effect sizes of change in CSF Aβ42 and regional Aβ PET were estimated to occur several decades before Aβ-positivity. Increases in CSF tau occurred 7-8 years before Aβ-positivity. Temporoparietal tau PET showed increases 4-5 years before Aβ-positivity. Subtle cognitive dysfunction was observed 4-6 years before Aβ-positivity. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in tau and cognitive dysfunction occur years before commonly used thresholds for Aβ-positivity. Explicit estimates of the time for these events provide a clearer picture of the time-course of the amyloid cascade and identify potential windows for specific treatments.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".