Apparent Collapse of the Peary Caribou (<i>Rangifer tarandus pearyi</i>) Population on Axel Heiberg Island, Nunavut, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In spring 2019, we conducted a comprehensive abundance and distribution survey for Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) and muskox (Ovibos moschatus) on Axel Heiberg Island, Nunavut, Canada. Although much of Axel Heiberg Island is rugged and extensively glaciated, areas east of the Princess Margaret mountain range have high productivity given the latitude and have supported relatively large numbers of Peary caribou and muskoxen. This region of the island has been previously identified as a potential High Arctic refugium. The last island-wide survey, in 2007, estimated 4237 muskoxen (95% confidence interval [CI] [3371:5325]) and 2291 Peary caribou (95% CI [1636:3208]); based on our 2019 results, it appears that muskox numbers have been stable on Axel Heiberg Island since then. Using distance sampling and density surface models, we estimated 3772 muskoxen (95% CI [3001:4742]) on Axel Heiberg Island during our 2019 survey. In contrast, Peary caribou, which is listed as an endangered species under the Canadian Species at Risk Act, appear to have declined dramatically from the 2007 estimate. During the 2019 survey, we observed only six Peary caribou and could not generate an island-wide estimate. Abrupt declines in numbers are characteristic of the species and are usually related to poor winter conditions such as dense snowpack or extreme weather events that result in widespread ground-fast icing. However, the limited monitoring information available at the northern extent of Peary caribou range presents major challenges to our understanding of the mechanisms leading to this near total absence of approximately 20% of range-wide Peary caribou numbers.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".