Cost-Effectiveness of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Screening With Epstein-Barr Virus Polymerase Chain Reaction or Serology in High-Incidence Populations Worldwide
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The incidence of endemic Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-associated nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) varies considerably worldwide. In high-incidence regions, screening trials have been conducted. We estimated the mortality reduction and cost-effectiveness of EBV-based NPC screening in populations worldwide. METHODS: We identified 380 populations in 132 countries with incident NPC and developed a decision-analytic model to compare 10 unique onetime screening strategies with no screening for men and women aged 50 years. Screening performance and the stage distribution of undiagnosed NPC were derived from a systematic review of prospective screening trials. RESULTS: Screening was cost-effective in up to 14.5% of populations, depending on the screening strategy. These populations were limited to East Asia, Southeast Asia, and North Africa or were Asian, Pacific Islander, or Inuit populations in North America. A combination of serology and nasopharyngeal polymerase chain reaction was most cost-effective, but other combinations of serologic and/or plasma polymerase chain reaction screening were also cost-effective. The estimated reduction in NPC mortality was similar across screening strategies. For a hypothetical cohort of patients in China, the 10-year survival improved from 71.0% (95% confidence interval = 68.8% to 73.0%) without screening to a median of 86.3% (range = 83.5%-88.2%) with screening. This corresponded to a median 10-year reduction in NPC mortality of 52.9% (range = 43.1%-59.3%). Screening interval affected absolute mortality reduction and cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: We observed decreased NPC mortality with EBV-based screening. Screening was cost-effective in many high-incidence populations and could be extended to men and women as early as age 40 years in select regions. These findings may be useful when choosing among local public health initiatives.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.025 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".