Changes in Plant-Based Diet Indices and Subsequent Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in Women and Men: Three U.S. Prospective Cohorts
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the associations between changes in plant-based diets and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We prospectively followed 76,530 women in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) (1986-2012), 81,569 women in NHS II (1991-2017), and 34,468 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2016). Adherence to plant-based diets was assessed every 4 years with the overall plant-based diet index (PDI), healthful PDI (hPDI), and unhealthful PDI (uPDI). We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs). We pooled results of the three cohorts using meta-analysis. RESULTS: We documented 12,627 cases of type 2 diabetes during 2,955,350 person-years of follow-up. After adjustment for initial BMI and initial and 4-year changes in alcohol intake, smoking, physical activity, and other factors, compared with participants whose indices remained relatively stable (±3%), participants with the largest decrease (>10%) in PDI and hPDI over 4 years had a 12-23% higher diabetes risk in the subsequent 4 years (pooled HR, PDI 1.12 [95% CI 1.05, 1.20], hPDI 1.23 [1.16, 1.31]). Each 10% increment in PDI and hPDI over 4 years was associated with a 7-9% lower risk (PDI 0.93 [0.91, 0.95], hPDI 0.91 [0.87, 0.95]). Changes in uPDI were not associated with diabetes risk. Weight changes accounted for 6.0-35.6% of the associations between changes in PDI and hPDI and diabetes risk. CONCLUSIONS: Improving adherence to overall and healthful plant-based diets was associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes, whereas decreased adherence to such diets was associated with a higher risk.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".