Modeling Climatic Influences on Three Parasitoids of Low-Density Spruce Budworm Populations. Part 2: Meteorus trachynotus (Hymenoptera: Braconidae)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This is the second article of a series of three where we develop temperature-driven models to describe the seasonal interactions between parasitoids and their hosts which we use to explore the impact of climate on their spatiotemporal biology. Here, we model the biology of Meteorus trachynotus (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) with an individual-based model of its daily interactions with two host species. This model predicts the performance of the parasitoid in response to temperature affecting its seasonal development and that of the two hosts. We compare model output with an extensive set of field observations from natural host populations. The predicted activity of the first adult parasitoid generation closely matches the seasonal pattern of attack on the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) within the limitations of available data. The model predicts 1–4 full generations of M. trachynotus per year in eastern North America, with generations well synchronized with larvae of a known overwintering host, the obliquebanded leafroller Choristoneura rosaceana. The model predicts the observed density dependence of parasitism on spruce budworm. Predicted performance exhibits spatial variation caused by complex life-history interactions, especially synchrony with the overwintering host. This leads to a better performance in warm but not hot environments at middle latitudes and elevations. The model’s predicted spatial patterns correspond closely to our field observations on the frequency of parasitism on spruce budworm. Under climate change, the model predicts that the performance of M. trachynotus populations will improve in the northern portion of its range.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".