Life Expectancy of Decommissioned Pipelines Under External Corrosion: Probabilistic Modeling
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The typical service lives of operational energy pipelines are up to 50–70 years. The existing lines would subsequently be decommissioned and replaced with new lines. As one approach to dealing with a decommissioned line is by leaving the line untouched in the ground, there exists uncertainty in the structural integrity of decommissioned lines under external corrosion over time. This paper introduces reliability-based integrity assessment of decommissioned pipelines that remain in the ground. Two limit state functions are developed to quantify (i) formation of perforations under pitting corrosion, and (ii) thinning of pipe wall thickness under uniform corrosion and initiation of pipe yielding under soil and traffic loading. Corrosion occurrence and growth are modeled as stochastic processes to account for its spatio-temporal uncertainty. The reliability and safe remaining lifetime of an entire pipeline sections are determined using enhanced Monto-Carlo simulations. A sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the governing factors of the life expectancy. The proposed integrity assessment is illustrated on an example.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".