Identification of patients at risk of sudden cardiac death in congenital heart disease: The PRospEctiVE study on implaNTable cardIOverter defibrillator therapy and suddeN cardiac death in Adults with Congenital Heart Disease (PREVENTION-ACHD)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BackgroundSudden cardiac death (SCD) is the main preventable cause of death in patients with adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). Since robust risk stratification methods are lacking, we developed a risk score model to predict SCD in patients with ACHD: the PRospEctiVE study on implaNTable cardIOverter defibrillator therapy and suddeN cardiac death in Adults with Congenital Heart Disease (PREVENTION-ACHD) risk score model.ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to prospectively study predicted SCD risk using the PREVENTION-ACHD risk score model and actual SCD and sustained ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF) rates in patients with ACHD.MethodsThe PREVENTION-ACHD risk score model assigns 1 point each to coronary artery disease, New York Heart Association class II/III heart failure, supraventricular tachycardia, systemic ejection fraction < 40%, subpulmonary ejection fraction < 40%, QRS duration ≥ 120 ms, and QT dispersion ≥ 70 ms. SCD risk was calculated for each patient. An annual predicted risk of ≥3% constituted high risk. The primary outcome was SCD or VT/VF after 2 years. The secondary outcome was SCD.ResultsThe study included 783 consecutive patients with ACHD (n=239 (31%) left-sided lesions; n=138 (18%) tetralogy of Fallot; n=108 (14%) closed atrial septal defect; median age 36 years; interquartile range 28–47 years; n=401 (51%) men). The PREVENTION-ACHD risk score model identified 58 high-risk patients. Eight patients (4 at high risk) experienced the primary outcome. The Kaplan-Meier estimates were 7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.1%–13.3%) in the high-risk group and 0.6% (95% CI 0.0%–1.1%) in the low-risk group (hazard ratio 12.5; 95% CI 3.1–50.9; P < .001). The risk score model’s sensitivity was 0.5 and specificity 0.93, resulting in a C-statistic of 0.75 (95% CI 0.57–0.90). The hazard ratio for SCD was 12.4 (95% CI 1.8–88.1) (P = .01); the sensitivity and specificity were 0.5 and 0.92, and the C-statistic was 0.81 (95% CI 0.67–0.95).ConclusionThe PREVENTION-ACHD risk score model provides greater accuracy in SCD or VT/VF risk stratification as compared with current guideline indications and identifies patients with ACHD who may benefit from preventive implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation. Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the main preventable cause of death in patients with adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). Since robust risk stratification methods are lacking, we developed a risk score model to predict SCD in patients with ACHD: the PRospEctiVE study on implaNTable cardIOverter defibrillator therapy and suddeN cardiac death in Adults with Congenital Heart Disease (PREVENTION-ACHD) risk score model. The purpose of this study was to prospectively study predicted SCD risk using the PREVENTION-ACHD risk score model and actual SCD and sustained ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF) rates in patients with ACHD. The PREVENTION-ACHD risk score model assigns 1 point each to coronary artery disease, New York Heart Association class II/III heart failure, supraventricular tachycardia, systemic ejection fraction < 40%, subpulmonary ejection fraction < 40%, QRS duration ≥ 120 ms, and QT dispersion ≥ 70 ms. SCD risk was calculated for each patient. An annual predicted risk of ≥3% constituted high risk. The primary outcome was SCD or VT/VF after 2 years. The secondary outcome was SCD. The study included 783 consecutive patients with ACHD (n=239 (31%) left-sided lesions; n=138 (18%) tetralogy of Fallot; n=108 (14%) closed atrial septal defect; median age 36 years; interquartile range 28–47 years; n=401 (51%) men). The PREVENTION-ACHD risk score model identified 58 high-risk patients. Eight patients (4 at high risk) experienced the primary outcome. The Kaplan-Meier estimates were 7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.1%–13.3%) in the high-risk group and 0.6% (95% CI 0.0%–1.1%) in the low-risk group (hazard ratio 12.5; 95% CI 3.1–50.9; P < .001). The risk score model’s sensitivity was 0.5 and specificity 0.93, resulting in a C-statistic of 0.75 (95% CI 0.57–0.90). The hazard ratio for SCD was 12.4 (95% CI 1.8–88.1) (P = .01); the sensitivity and specificity were 0.5 and 0.92, and the C-statistic was 0.81 (95% CI 0.67–0.95). The PREVENTION-ACHD risk score model provides greater accuracy in SCD or VT/VF risk stratification as compared with current guideline indications and identifies patients with ACHD who may benefit from preventive implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".