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Record W3122693930

Risk Classification and Social Welfare

2005· preprint· en· W3122693930 on OpenAlexaff
Michael Hoy

Bibliographic record

VenueRePEc: Research Papers in Economics · 2005
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicInsurance and Financial Risk Management
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Guelph
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPoolingAdverse selectionIgnoranceWelfaresortEquity (law)Actuarial sciencePublic economicsEconomicsSocial WelfareRegulatory focus theoryMicroeconomicsBusinessComputer sciencePolitical scienceArtificial intelligence
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

In this paper I provide a selective survey of the literature on the social welfare implications of regulations that restrict insurers use of classification by personal characteristics. I refer to this practice as regulatory adverse selection. To differentiate this survey from earlier ones, I focus on directly addressing the question “What can canonical models of insurance tell us about policy effects of restrictions on risk classification? ” Rather than focus on efficiency properties of such regulations, I adopt an explicit welfare function approach of the sort inspired by Harsanyi’s (1953, 1955) veil of ignorance. This allows for an explicit tradeoff concerning the equity and efficiency effects of regulatory adverse selection. Also, I pay more attention than do earlier surveys to the possibility of pooling equilibria under nonexclusivity of provision and additional considerations that specifically affect the life insurance market. I derive some explicit conditions that determine when such regulations are either welfare enhancing or detrimental.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.582
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0010.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.048
GPT teacher head0.289
Teacher spread0.241 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations2
Published2005
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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