A quarter century of economic reforms in Ukraine: too late, too slow, too little / Æwieræ wieku ukraiñskich reform: za ma³o, za póŸno i zbyt wolno
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The first aim of this paper is to describe the main developments in the Ukrainian economy since its independence in 1991, focusing on the evolution of output, and the path of economic reforms — that is, to simply show what happened. The bottom line on that is well known: Ukraine’s economy performed very poorly, and its reforms moved quite slowly, lagging behind most of Central Europe and the Baltic, and even behind some FSU (Former Soviet Union) countries. This first task is a relatively easy one, though some measurement issues do need discussion. In comparison, the second aim — explaining why it happened, identifying the explanatory, causal factors — is much more difficult and contentious. Indeed, causation here means two dynamics: the relationship between performance and reform pace, and the underlying determinants of the slow reforms. The paper’s main effort will be to argue and present evidence that the poor economic performance is primarily due to the late and slow start on economic reforms. However, it only begins to point to the explanations for slow reforms and suggest a modeling approach to analyze this econometrically in future work. Contents of this publication were first presented by Oleh Havrylyshyn during the 135th mBank-CASE Seminar "A quarter century of economic reforms in Ukraine: too late, too slow, too little". / Niniejsze opracowanie ma na celu opisaæ g³ówne zmiany, jakie zasz³y w ukraiñskiej gospodarce od momentu odzyskania niepodleg³oœci w 1991 roku, równoczeœnie zwracaj¹c uwagê na rozwój produkcji i œcie¿ki reform gospodarczych. Dobrze znanym faktem jest, i¿ gospodarka Ukrainy funkcjonowa³a bardzo s³abo, a proces jej reformowania przebiega³ doœæ powoli, znacznie wolniej ni¿ w wiêkszoœci krajów Europy Œrodkowej i pañstw Ba³tyckich, a nawet niektórych krajów by³ego Zwi¹zku Radzieckiego. Kolejnym, o wiele bardziej problematycznym i kontrowersyjnym celem opracowania jest wyjaœnienie, dlaczego tak siê sta³o. W tym przypadku zwi¹zek przyczynowy powi¹zany jest z dwoma relacjami: zale¿noœci¹ miêdzy wydajnoœci¹ gospodarki i tempem reform, oraz czynnikami bêd¹cymi przyczyn¹ wolnego tempa reform. Najwa¿niejszym celem niniejszej pracy jest natomiast wykazanie oraz udowodnienie, ¿e s³abe wyniki gospodarcze s¹ przede wszystkim wynikiem póŸnego rozpoczêcia procesu reform oraz ich wolnego tempa. Jest ona jednak jedynie wstêpem do pe³nej analizy przyczyn opiesza³oœci we wprowadzaniu zmian oraz propozycja sposobów zastosowania metod ekonometrycznych do zbadania tego problemu w przysz³oœci. / Treœæ Zeszytu zosta³a po raz pierwszy zaprezentowana przez Oleha Havrylyshyna podczas 135. Seminarium mBank-CASE: "Æwieræ wieku ukraiñskich reform: za ma³o, za póŸno i zbyt wolno".
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.010 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".