Effects of fiscal policy shocks in an open economy: evidence from Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
What is the impact of fiscal policy shocks on key macroeconomic variables in Canada? This question triggered renewed interest in the aftermath of the 2008-09 Great Recession. Indeed, as in many advanced economies, fiscal policy in Canada following the recession started with an expansionary phase to boost domestic demand. It progressed to an adjustment phase to reduce public debt and ensure long-term fiscal sustainability and sustained growth. This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal policy shocks on the Canadian economy, building on the sign-restrictions-VAR approach. Unlike previous studies, this paper explicitly accounts for spillovers from the U.S., Canada's main trading partner, and for oil price fluctuations. The findings show that the size and sign of the spending and tax revenue multipliers depend on whether the analysis controls for the exogenous factors. The tax-cut multiplier varies between 0.2 and 0.5, while the spending multiplier ranges between 0.2 and 1.1; the spending multiplier tends to be larger than the tax-cut multiplier over the past two decades.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".