POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON U.S. CATTLE AND BEEF PRICES FROM REOPENING THE BORDERS
Bibliographic record
Abstract
U.S. trade of beef and live cattle has declined substantially since the discoveries of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canada and the United States in 2003. Imports of live cattle from Canada resumed in July 2005, but U.S. beef exports remained substantially below pre-BSE levels as important export markets in Japan and Korea were not regained. The removal of the ban on Canadian imports and the eventual lifting of bans to export markets could affect U.S. cattle and beef prices. In this study, an econometric model is developed and estimated to determine the effects of lifting trade restrictions on cattle and beef prices. Results show that if net cattle imports from Canada increase to 1.5 million animals per year, with beef imports held constant, the slaughter steer, feeder steer, and retail beef prices would decrease $4.65/cwt, $5.31/cwt, and 6.55 cents/lb, respectively. However, the drop in prices from increased imports would be more than negated if beef exports returned to near previous levels. If beef exports increased to 100 percent of the 2003 level, slaughter steer, feeder steer, and retail beef prices could increase by $7.83/cwt, $8.95/cwt, and 16.0 cents/lb, respectively.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".