Cystic fibrosis–related diabetes onset can be predicted using biomarkers measured at birth
Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE: Cystic fibrosis (CF), caused by pathogenic variants in the CF transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR), affects multiple organs including the exocrine pancreas, which is a causal contributor to cystic fibrosis-related diabetes (CFRD). Untreated CFRD causes increased CF-related mortality whereas early detection can improve outcomes. METHODS: Using genetic and easily accessible clinical measures available at birth, we constructed a CFRD prediction model using the Canadian CF Gene Modifier Study (CGS; n = 1,958) and validated it in the French CF Gene Modifier Study (FGMS; n = 1,003). We investigated genetic variants shown to associate with CF disease severity across multiple organs in genome-wide association studies. RESULTS: The strongest predictors included sex, CFTR severity score, and several genetic variants including one annotated to PRSS1, which encodes cationic trypsinogen. The final model defined in the CGS shows excellent agreement when validated on the FGMS, and the risk classifier shows slightly better performance at predicting CFRD risk later in life in both studies. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated clinical utility by comparing CFRD prevalence rates between the top 10% of individuals with the highest risk and the bottom 10% with the lowest risk. A web-based application was developed to provide practitioners with patient-specific CFRD risk to guide CFRD monitoring and treatment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".