Cystic fibrosis–related diabetes onset can be predicted using biomarkers measured at birth
Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE: Cystic fibrosis (CF), caused by pathogenic variants in the CF transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR), affects multiple organs including the exocrine pancreas, which is a causal contributor to cystic fibrosis-related diabetes (CFRD). Untreated CFRD causes increased CF-related mortality whereas early detection can improve outcomes. METHODS: Using genetic and easily accessible clinical measures available at birth, we constructed a CFRD prediction model using the Canadian CF Gene Modifier Study (CGS; n = 1,958) and validated it in the French CF Gene Modifier Study (FGMS; n = 1,003). We investigated genetic variants shown to associate with CF disease severity across multiple organs in genome-wide association studies. RESULTS: The strongest predictors included sex, CFTR severity score, and several genetic variants including one annotated to PRSS1, which encodes cationic trypsinogen. The final model defined in the CGS shows excellent agreement when validated on the FGMS, and the risk classifier shows slightly better performance at predicting CFRD risk later in life in both studies. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated clinical utility by comparing CFRD prevalence rates between the top 10% of individuals with the highest risk and the bottom 10% with the lowest risk. A web-based application was developed to provide practitioners with patient-specific CFRD risk to guide CFRD monitoring and treatment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".