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Record W3124818850

A Neyman-Pearson Problem with Ambiguity and Nonlinear Pricing

2017· article· en· W3124818850 on OpenAlexaff
Mario Ghossoub

Bibliographic record

VenueSSRN Electronic Journal · 2017
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicRisk and Portfolio Optimization
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Waterloo
Fundersnot available
KeywordsWeightingMathematicsMathematical economicsAmbiguityProbability measureEconometricsPortfolioExpected utility hypothesisHedgeMeasure (data warehouse)Monotonic functionEconomicsComputer scienceStatisticsFinancial economics
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

We consider a problem of the Neyman-Pearson type arising in the theory of portfolio choice in the presence of probability weighting, such as in markets with Choquet pricing (as in Araujo et al (2011), Cerreia-Vioglio et al (2015), Chateauneuf and Cornet (2015), or Chateauneuf et al (1996)) and ambiguous beliefs about the payoffs of contingent claims. Specifically, we consider a problem of optimal choice of a contingent claim so as to minimize a non-linear pricing functional (or a distortion risk measure), subject to a minimum expected performance measure (or a minimum expected return or utility), where expectations with respect to distorted probabilities are taken in the sense of Choquet. Such contingent claims are called cost-efficient. We give an analytical characterization of cost-efficient contingent claims under very mild assumptions on the probability weighting functions, thereby extending some of the results of Ghossoub (2016), and we provide examples of some special cases of interest as well as an illustrative numerical example. In particular, we show how a cost-efficient contingent claim exhibits a desirable monotonicity property: It is anti-comonotonic with the random mark-to-market value (or return, etc.) of the underlying financial position, and it is hence a hedge against such variability.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.005
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.018
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.005
Threshold uncertainty score0.026

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0050.018
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0020.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.003
Scholarly communication0.0030.004
Open science0.0020.002
Research integrity0.0050.003
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0050.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.032
GPT teacher head0.339
Teacher spread0.307 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2017
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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