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Record W3124999196 · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2001.10092

Objective Social Choice: Using Auxiliary Information to Improve Voting\n Outcomes

2020· preprint· en· W3124999196 on OpenAlexaff
Silviu Pitis, Michael R. Zhang

Bibliographic record

VenuearXiv (Cornell University) · 2020
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicForecasting Techniques and Applications
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Toronto
Fundersnot available
KeywordsVotingComputer scienceIndependent and identically distributed random variablesMajority ruleInferenceArtificial intelligenceNoise (video)Set (abstract data type)Core (optical fiber)Social choice theoryArtificial neural networkNormativeMachine learningData miningMathematicsMathematical economicsRandom variableStatistics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

How should one combine noisy information from diverse sources to make an\ninference about an objective ground truth? This frequently recurring, normative\nquestion lies at the core of statistics, machine learning, policy-making, and\neveryday life. It has been called "combining forecasts", "meta-analysis",\n"ensembling", and the "MLE approach to voting", among other names. Past studies\ntypically assume that noisy votes are identically and independently distributed\n(i.i.d.), but this assumption is often unrealistic. Instead, we assume that\nvotes are independent but not necessarily identically distributed and that our\nensembling algorithm has access to certain auxiliary information related to the\nunderlying model governing the noise in each vote. In our present work, we: (1)\ndefine our problem and argue that it reflects common and socially relevant real\nworld scenarios, (2) propose a multi-arm bandit noise model and count-based\nauxiliary information set, (3) derive maximum likelihood aggregation rules for\nranked and cardinal votes under our noise model, (4) propose, alternatively, to\nlearn an aggregation rule using an order-invariant neural network, and (5)\nempirically compare our rules to common voting rules and naive\nexperience-weighted modifications. We find that our rules successfully use\nauxiliary information to outperform the naive baselines.\n

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.461
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0010.002
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.268
GPT teacher head0.318
Teacher spread0.050 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2020
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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