Computable General Equilibrium Estimates of the Gains from US-Canadian Trade Liberalization
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We have constructed a computable general equilibrium model to analyze the economic effects of the bilateral tariff reductions that will be implemented in the US-Canadian Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The model includes the US, Canada, 32 other countries combined, and the rest of world. There are 22 tradable sectors and 7 nontradable sectors in each country/region. The market structures for industries in the US and Canada are classified according to the degree of competition, degree of product differentiation, and the ease with which new firms can enter a market. Our results indicate that bilateral tariff removal in the FTA will increase US imports by $6 billion and exports by $7.3 billion, based on 1976 trade. Canada's imports increase by $8.3 billion and exports by $8.5 billion. US welfare rises by $1.5 billlion, which is 0.1% of US GSP in 1976. Canada's welfare rises by $2 billion, which is 1.1% of its 1976 GDP. On a sectoral level, the results suggest that there will be increases in inter-industry as well as intra-industry trade together with changes in scale economies due to industry rationalization and derationalization in the two nations. Output and employment effects in the US appear to be relatively small while some potentially sizable changes may occur in a number of sectors in Canada.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".