Societal development and the alcohol‐attributable burden of disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AIM: This study aimed to examine if there is an interaction between alcohol use and human development in terms of their associations with alcohol-attributable health harms. DESIGN: Statistical modelling of global country- and region-specific data from 2016. SETTING: Global. PARTICIPANTS/CASES: The units of the analyses were countries (n = 180) and regions (n = 4) based on their Human Development Index (HDI). MEASUREMENTS: Alcohol-attributable harms [deaths, years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost] and risk relations were based on a recent study using World Health Organization (WHO) estimates for 2016. Human development was measured using the HDI, a summary score of life expectancy, education and gross national income from the United Nations Development Programme. Interactions between HDI and adult per-capita consumption (APC) affecting alcohol-attributable harms were assessed using likelihood ratio tests. Differences in alcohol-attributable harms per litre of APC between HDI groups were assessed using regression analyses and a reference group of low HDI. FINDINGS: APC is associated with alcohol-attributable deaths, YLL, YLDs and DALYs lost, while HDI is associated with alcohol-attributable deaths, YLL and DALYs lost. Statistical analyses indicated there is an interaction between HDI and APC in their associations with alcohol-attributable deaths, YLL and DALYs lost per 100 000 people. The alcohol-attributable burden was highest in low HDI countries, with 11.65 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 10.75, 12.40] deaths and 495.61 (95% CI = 461.83, 569.23) DALYs lost per 100 000 people per litre of APC, and lowest in very high HDI countries, with 4.15 (95% CI = 2.46, 5.71) deaths and 200.31 (95% CI = 122.78, 265.10) DALYs lost per 100 000 people per litre of APC. However, no statistical differences between low and very high HDI groupings for these burdens were observed. CONCLUSIONS: There appears to be an interaction between the Human Development Index and alcohol use in their associations with alcohol-attributable deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years lost but not with alcohol-attributable years lived with disability. Alcohol appears to have a stronger harmful impact per litre of alcohol consumed in lesser developed countries than in developed countries.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".