Spatial variation of hydroclimate in north-eastern North America during the last millennium
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climatic expressions of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) vary regionally, with reconstructions often depicting complex spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation change. The characterisation of these spatial patterns helps advance understanding of hydroclimate variability and associated responses of human and natural systems to climate change. Many regions, including north-eastern North America, still lack well-resolved records of past hydrological change. Here, we reconstruct hydroclimatic change over the past millennium using testate amoeba-inferred peatland water table depth reconstructions obtained from fifteen peatlands across Maine, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Québec. Spatial comparisons of reconstructed water table depths reveal complex hydroclimatic patterns that varied over the last millennium. The records suggest a spatially divergent pattern across the region during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. Southern peatlands were wetter during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, whilst northern and more continental sites were drier. There is no evidence at the multi-decadal sampling resolution of this study to indicate that Medieval mega-droughts recorded in the west and continental interior of North America extended to these peatlands in the north-east of the continent. Reconstructed Little Ice Age hydroclimate change was spatially variable rather than displaying a clear directional shift or latitudinal trends, which may relate to local temporary permafrost aggradation in northern sites, and reconstructed characteristics of some dry periods during the Little Ice Age are comparable with those reconstructed during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The spatial hydroclimatic trends identified here suggest that over the last millennium, peatland moisture balance in north-eastern North America has been influenced by changes in the Polar Jet Stream, storm activities and sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic as well as internal peatland dynamics.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".