Derivation of Pheromone-Based Larval Thresholds in Spruce Budworm Accounting for Distance to Defoliated Forest Stands
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana Clem. (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is the most severe defoliator of Pinaceae in Nearctic boreal forests. Three tools widely used to guide large-scale management decisions (year-to-year defoliation maps; density of overwintering second instars [L2]; number of males at pheromone traps) were integrated to derive pheromone-based thresholds corresponding to specific intergenerational transitions in larval densities (L2i → L2i+1), taking into account the novel finding that threshold estimates decline with distance to defoliated forest stands (DIST). Estimates of thresholds were highly variable between years, both numerically and in terms of interactive effects of L2i and DIST, which limit their heuristic value. In the context of early intervention strategy (L2i+1 > 6.5 individuals per branch), however, thresholds fluctuated within relatively narrow intervals across wide ranges of L2i and DIST, and values of 40-200 males per trap may thus be used as general guideline.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".