Mitigating imperfect data validity in administrative data PSIs: a method for estimating true adverse event rates
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
QUESTION: Are there ways to mitigate the challenges associated with imperfect data validity in Patient Safety Indicator (PSI) report cards? FINDINGS: Applying a methodological framework on simulated PSI report card data, we compare the adjusted PSI rates of three hospitals with variable quality of data and coding. This framework combines (i) a measure of PSI rates using existing algorithms; (ii) a medical record review on a small random sample of charts to produce a measure of hospital-specific data validity and (iii) a simple Bayesian calculation to derive estimated true PSI rates. For example, the estimated true PSI rate, for a theoretical hospital with a moderately good quality of coding, could be three times as high as the measured rate (for example, 1.4% rather than 0.5%). For a theoretical hospital with relatively poor quality of coding, the difference could be 50-fold (for example, 5.0% rather than 0.1%). MEANING: Combining a medical chart review on a limited number of medical charts at the hospital level creates an approach to producing health system report cards with estimates of true hospital-level adverse event rates.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.022 | 0.031 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it