Course and Predictors of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in the Canadian Armed Forces: A Nationally Representative, 16-Year Follow-up Study: Cours et prédicteurs du trouble de stress post-traumatique dans les Forces armées canadiennes: une étude de suivi de 16 ans nationalement représentative
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Objective: This study examined baseline risk and protective predictors and interim correlates of the persistence/recurrence, remission, and onset of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in a 16-year prospective, nationally representative sample of Canadian Forces members and veterans. Methods: The 2018 Canadian Armed Forces Members and Veterans Mental Health Follow-up Survey is a prospective study of 2,941 regular force service members and veterans who participated in the 2002 Canadian Community Health Survey on Mental Health and Wellbeing: Canadian Forces Supplement ( n = 5,155; ages 15 to 64 years; response rate 68%). PTSD diagnoses in 2002 and 2018 were used to create 4 groups: (1) no lifetime, (2) remitted, (3) new onset, and (4) persistent/recurrent PTSD. Multinomial regressions were conducted to identify predictors of PTSD courses. Results: Female sex, being a junior noncommissioned member (vs. officer), and land (vs. air) operations in 2002 were associated with all PTSD courses relative to no lifetime PTSD (relative risk ratio [RRR] range: 1.28 to 3.65). After adjusting for sociodemographic variables, baseline predictors of all PTSD courses included lifetime mental disorder, history of mental health care utilization, all trauma type categories (deployment-associated, sexual, “other”), and the number of lifetime traumatic events (RRR range: 1.14 to 8.95). New (“since 2002”) traumas, transitioning to veteran status, and alcohol dependence were mostly associated with the new onset and persistent/recurrent PTSD courses (RRR range: 1.79 to 4.31), while mental health care utilization and greater avoidance coping were associated with all PTSD courses (RRR range: 1.10 to 17.87). Protective factors for several PTSD courses at one or both time points included social support, social network size, and problem-focused coping (RRR range: 0.71 to 0.98). Conclusions: This is the first population-based survey to examine the longitudinal course of PTSD in Canadian Forces members. Prevention and intervention programs focused on bolstering social support and active coping strategies as possible protective factors/correlates may help mitigate the development and persistence of PTSD.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".