Long-term trends in a forest ungulate community: park establishment increases numbers, but poaching is a constant threat
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Deforestation represents one of the greatest threats to tropical forest mammals, and the situation is greatly exacerbated by bushmeat hunting. To construct informed conservation plans, information must be gathered about responses to habitat degradation, regeneration, and hunting over a sufficiently long period to allow demographic responses. We quantified changes in the abundance of three commonly occurring ungulate species (i.e., bushbuck, <i>Tragelaphus scriptus</i>; red duiker, <i>Cephalophus</i> sp.; blue duiker, <i>Cephalophus monticola</i>) at eight sites in Kibale National Park, Uganda (old growth=3; logged=3; regenerating=2) for 23 years. Changes in abundance (363 surveys totaling 1 450 km) were considered in regard to the park’s management strategy, regional economic indicators, and estimates of illegal hunting. Bushbuck abundance increased in old-growth and logged forests from 1996 to 2009, and then oscillated around this level or declined. Duiker abundance demonstrated a similar pattern, but abundance in the old-growth forests showed a general increase from 1996 to present day. Duiker abundance in the logged forests exhibited an early increase, but subsequent oscillation. Poaching signs per patrol have remained stable over the last decade, despite increases in the size of the surrounding population, cost of living, and cost of schooling, thus reflecting successful efforts in conservation education and enforcement. Our study highlights the positive impact of park establishment, patrol, and conservation efforts on ungulate populations and shows the adaptability of forest mammal populations to different management schemes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".