Vitamin D levels and risk of type 1 diabetes: A Mendelian randomization study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with type 1 diabetes in observational studies, but evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) is lacking. The aim of this study was to test whether genetically decreased vitamin D levels are causally associated with type 1 diabetes using Mendelian randomization (MR). METHODS AND FINDINGS: For our two-sample MR study, we selected as instruments single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are strongly associated with 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) levels in a large vitamin D genome-wide association study (GWAS) on 443,734 Europeans and obtained their corresponding effect estimates on type 1 diabetes risk from a large meta-analysis of 12 type 1 diabetes GWAS studies (Ntot = 24,063, 9,358 cases, and 15,705 controls). In addition to the main analysis using inverse variance weighted MR, we applied 3 additional methods to control for pleiotropy (MR-Egger, weighted median, and mode-based estimate) and compared the respective MR estimates. We also undertook sensitivity analyses excluding SNPs with potential pleiotropic effects. We identified 69 lead independent common SNPs to be genome-wide significant for 25OHD, explaining 3.1% of the variance in 25OHD levels. MR analyses suggested that a 1 standard deviation (SD) decrease in standardized natural log-transformed 25OHD (corresponding to a 29-nmol/l change in 25OHD levels in vitamin D-insufficient individuals) was not associated with an increase in type 1 diabetes risk (inverse-variance weighted (IVW) MR odds ratio (OR) = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.86 to 1.40, p = 0.48). We obtained similar results using the 3 pleiotropy robust MR methods and in sensitivity analyses excluding SNPs associated with serum lipid levels, body composition, blood traits, and type 2 diabetes. Our findings indicate that decreased vitamin D levels did not have a substantial impact on risk of type 1 diabetes in the populations studied. Study limitations include an inability to exclude the existence of smaller associations and a lack of evidence from non-European populations. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that 25OHD levels are unlikely to have a large effect on risk of type 1 diabetes, but larger MR studies or RCTs are needed to investigate small effects.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".