New quantile based ridge M-estimator for linear regression models with multicollinearity and outliers
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The ordinary least squares and ridge regression estimators in a multiple linear regression model with multicollinearity and y-direction outliers lead to unfavorable results. In order to mitigate such situation, the available literature provides few ridge M-estimators to get precise estimates. The ridge parameter, k, plays a vital role in a bias-variance tradeoff for these estimators. However, for high signal-to-noise ratio and multicollinearity with y-direction outliers, the available methods may not perform well in terms of their mean squared error. In this article, we propose a new quantile based ridge M-estimator. The new estimator gives an automated choice of quantile probability of ridge parameter according to the level of noise and multicollinearity. Based on a simulation study, the new estimator outperforms the ordinary least square estimator, ridge estimator, and other considered ridge M-estimators especially for high multicollinearity, significant error variance, and y-direction outliers. Besides normal distribution, new estimator also performs well for heavy-tailed error distribution. Finally, two real-life examples are used to illustrate the application of the proposed estimator.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it