Diagnostic accuracy of RT-PCR for detection of SARS-CoV-2 compared to a “composite reference standard” in hospitalized patients
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background COVID-19 caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has caused the greatest public health emergency of our time. Accurate laboratory detection of the virus is critical in order to contain the spread. Although real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has been the cornerstone of laboratory diagnosis, there have been conflicting reports on the diagnostic accuracy of this method. Methods A retrospective review was performed on all hospitalized patients tested for SARS-CoV-2 (at St. Pauls Hospital in Vancouver, BC) from March 13 – April 12, 2020. Diagnostic accuracy of initial PCR on nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs was determined against a composite reference standard which included a clinical assessment of the likelihood of COVID-19 by medical experts, initial and repeat PCR, and post-hoc serological testing. Results A total of 323 patients were included in the study, 33 (10.2%) tested positive and 290 (89.8%) tested negative by initial PCR. Patients testing positive were more likely to exhibit features of cough (66.7% vs 39.3%), shortness of breath (63.6% vs 35.9%), fever (72.7% vs 27.6%), radiographic findings (83.3% vs 39.6%) and severe outcomes including ICU admission (24.2% vs 9.7%) and mortality (21.2% vs 6.2%) compared to patients testing negative. Serology was performed on 90 patients and correlation between serology and PCR was 98.9%. There were 90 patients included in the composite reference standard. Compared to the composite reference standard, initial PCR had sensitivity of 94.7% (95% CI 74.0 to 99.9%), specificity of 100% (95% CI 94.9 to 100%), positive predictive value of 100% (95% CI 81.5 to 100%) and a negative predictive value of 98.6% (95% CI 92.5 to 100%). Discussion Our study showed high sensitivity of PCR on NP swab specimens when compared to composite reference standard in hospitalized patients. High correlation of PCR with serological testing further increased confidence in the diagnostic reliability of properly collected NP swabs.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".