Increases in Great Lake winds and extreme events facilitate interbasin coupling and reduce water quality in Lake Erie
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Climate change affects physical and biogeochemical processes in lakes. We show significant increases in surface-water temperature (~ 0.5 °C decade−1; > 0.2% year−1) and wave power (> 1% year−1; the transport of energy by waves) associated with atmospheric phenomena (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation) in the month of August between 1980 and 2018 in the Laurentian Great Lakes. A pattern in wave power, in response to extreme winds, was identified as a proxy to predict interbasin coupling in Lake Erie. This involved the upwelling of cold and hypoxic (dissolved oxygen < 2 mg L−1) hypolimnetic water containing high total phosphorus concentration from the seasonally stratified central basin into the normally well-mixed western basin opposite to the eastward flow. Analysis of historical records indicate that hypoxic events due to interbasin exchange have increased in the western basin over the last four decades (43% in the last 10 years) thus affecting the water quality of the one of the world’s largest freshwater sources and fisheries.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".