Interferon-gamma release assay levels and risk of progression to active tuberculosis: a systematic review and dose-response meta-regression analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Identifying and treating individuals with high risk of progression from latent tuberculosis infection to active tuberculosis (TB) disease is critical for eliminating the disease. We aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-regression analysis to quantify the dose-response relationship between interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) levels and the risk of progression to active TB. METHODS: We searched PubMed and Embase from 1 January 2001 to 10 May 2020 for longitudinal studies that reported the risk of progression from latent to active TB as a function of baseline IGRA values. We used a novel Bayesian meta-regression method to pool effect sizes from included studies and generate a continuous dose-response risk curve. Our modeling framework enabled us to incorporate random effects across studies, and include data with different IGRA ranges across studies. The quality of included studies were assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale (NOS). RESULTS: We included 34 studies representing 581,956 person-years of follow-up with a total of 788 incident cases of TB in the meta-regression analysis. Higher levels of interferon-gamma were associated with increased risk of progression to active tuberculosis. In the dose-response curve, the risk increased sharply between interferon-gamma levels 0 and 5 IU/ml, after which the risk continued to increase moderately but at a slower pace until reaching about 15 IU/ml where the risk levels off. Compared to 0 IU/ml, the relative risk of progression to active TB among those with interferon-gamma levels of 0.35, 1, 5, 10, 15, and 20 IU/ml were: 1.64 (1.28-2.08), 2.90 (2.02-3.88), 11.38 (6.64-16.38), 19.00 (13.08-26.90), 21.82 (14.65-32.57), and 22.31 (15.43-33.00), respectively. The dose-response relationship remains consistent when limiting the analysis to studies that scored highest in the NOS. CONCLUSION: The current practice of dichotomizing IGRA test results simplifies the TB infection disease continuum. Evaluating IGRA test results over a continuous scale could enable the identification of individuals at greatest risk of progression to active TB.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.032 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.012 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".