A25 THE RISING GLOBAL INCIDENCE OF PEDIATRIC INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF POPULATION-BASED STUDIES
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background The incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), including Crohn’s disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), is increasing internationally, particularly in developing nations where rates were historically low. Previous reports of the incidence and prevalence of pediatric-onset IBD have identified a paucity of population-based studies. Aims We reviewed the global trends in incidence of pediatric IBD using evidence from population-based studies. Methods (PROSPERO CRD42019125193) We systematically reviewed studies indexed in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Airiti Library, and SciELO from 01/2010-02/2020 to identify population-based studies reporting the incidence of pediatric-onset IBD, CD, and UC. Included studies combined childhood and adolescent-onset IBD (onset <21y). Changes in incidence since 2000 were plotted by continent, with data from 2000–09 provided by our previous systematic review1. To depict trends, multiple times points reported in single studies were connected on graphs. When incidence was reported as an aggregated estimate over a range of years, data was plotted using the midpoint of the interval. Results Of 8096 abstracts screened, 74 studies described the incidence of IBD, CD, or UC in 33 countries (Figure panel A). The incidence of pediatric-onset IBD is highest in Northern Europe and North America, and lowest in Southern Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. This geographical distribution is similar in UC, while incidence of pediatric-onset CD is highest in North America and Northern Europe, followed by Australia. Trends in incidence over time, stratified by continent, are reported in Figure, panel B. Significantly increasing incidence of IBD, CD, and/or UC was reported in China, Bahrain, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, and most European countries. Very Early Onset (VEO) IBD significantly increased in Canada, however Saudi Arabia reported decreasing incidence of VEO-CD but stable incidence of VEO-UC. Conclusions Conclusion: Incidence of pediatric-onset IBD are highest in Northern Europe and North American and are increasing globally. There remains a paucity of studies from many parts of the world on the incidence pediatric IBD. Further research is needed to understand the pathogenesis of the rising incidence of pediatric IBD, including work to understand the genetic, environmental, immunological and microbiome alterations leading to the increasing rates in children. References: 1Benchimol, Fortinsky et al. Inflamm Bowel Dis 2011;17:423–39. Funding Agencies None
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.014 | 0.056 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.008 | 0.009 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.020 | 0.026 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".