Early post-partum viremia predicts long-term non-suppression of viral load in HIV-positive women on ART in Malawi: Implications for the elimination of infant transmission
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Long-term viral load (VL) suppression among HIV-positive, reproductive-aged women on ART is key to eliminating mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) but few data exist from sub-Saharan Africa. We report trends in post-partum VL in Malawian women on ART and factors associated with detectable VL up to 24 months post-partum. METHODS: 1-6 months post-partum mothers, screened HIV-positive at outpatient clinics in Malawi, were enrolled (2014-2016) with their infants. At enrollment, 12- and 24-months post-partum socio-demographic and PMTCT indicators were collected. Venous samples were collected for determination of maternal VL (limit of detection 40 copies/ml). Results were returned to clinics for routine management. RESULTS: 596/1281 (46.5%) women were retained in the study to 24 months. Those retained were older (p<0.01), had higher parity (p = 0.03) and more likely to have undetectable VL at enrollment than those lost to follow-up (80.0% vs 70.2%, p<0.01). Of 590 women on ART (median 30.1 months; inter-quartile range 26.8-61.3), 442 (74.9%) with complete VL data at 3 visits were included in further analysis. Prevalence of detectable VL at 12 and 24 months was higher among women with detectable VL at enrollment than among those with undetectable VL (74 detectable VL results/66 women vs. 19/359; p<0.001). In multivariable analysis (adjusted for age, parity, education, partner disclosure, timing of ART start and self-reported adherence), detectable VL at 24 months was 9 times more likely among women with 1 prior detectable VL (aOR 9.0; 95%CI 3.5-23.0, p<0.001) and 226 times more likely for women with 2 prior detectable VLs (aOR 226.4; 95%CI 73.0-701.8, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Detectable virus early post-partum strongly increases risk of ongoing post-partum viremia. Due to high loss to follow-up, the true incidence of detectable VL over time is probably underestimated. These findings have implications for MTCT, as well as for the mothers, and call for intensified VL monitoring and targeted adherence support for women during pregnancy and post-partum.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".