Cosmic Evolution of the H<sub>2</sub> Mass Density and the Epoch of Molecular Gas
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We present new empirical constraints on the evolution of , the cosmological mass density of molecular hydrogen, back to z ≈ 2.5. We employ a statistical approach measuring the average observed 850 μm flux density of near-infrared selected galaxies as a function of redshift. The redshift range considered corresponds to a span where the 850 μm band probes the Rayleigh–Jeans tail of thermal dust emission in the rest frame, and can therefore be used as an estimate of the mass of the interstellar medium. Our sample comprises of ≈150,000 galaxies in the UK InfraRed Telescope Infrared Deep Sky Survey Ultra-Deep Survey field with near-infrared magnitudes K AB ≤ 25 mag and photometric redshifts with corresponding probability distribution functions derived from deep 12-band photometry. With a sample approximately 2 orders of magnitude larger than in previous works we significantly reduce statistical uncertainties on to z ≈ 2.5. Our measurements are in broad agreement with recent direct estimates from blank field molecular gas surveys, finding that the epoch of molecular gas coincides with the peak epoch of star formation with at z ≈ 2. We demonstrate that can be broadly modeled by inverting the star formation rate (SFR) density with a fixed or weakly evolving star formation efficiency. This “constant efficiency” model shows a similar evolution to our statistically derived , indicating that the dominant factor driving the peak star formation history at z ≈ 2 is a larger supply of molecular gas in galaxies rather than a significant evolution of the SFR efficiency within individual galaxies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".