Association Between Attending Physicians’ Rates of Referral to Palliative Care and Location of Death in Hospitalized Adults With Serious Illness
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Patients who receive palliative care are less likely to die in hospital. OBJECTIVE: To measure the association between physician rates of referral to palliative care and location of death in hospitalized adults with serious illness. RESEARCH DESIGN: Population-based decedent cohort study using linked health administrative data in Ontario, Canada. SUBJECTS: A total of 7866 physicians paired with 130,862 hospitalized adults in their last year of life who died of serious illness between 2010 and 2016. EXPOSURE: Physician annual rate of referral to palliative care (high, average, low). MEASURES: Odds of death in hospital versus home, adjusted for patient characteristics. RESULTS: There was nearly 4-fold variation in the proportion of patients receiving palliative care during follow-up based on attending physician referral rates: high 42.4% (n=24,433), average 24.7% (n=10,772), low 10.7% (n=6721). Referral to palliative care was also associated with being referred by palliative care specialists and in urban teaching hospitals. The proportion of patients who died in hospital according to physician referral rate were 47.7% (high), 50.1% (average), and 52.8% (low). Hospitalized patients cared for by a physician who referred to palliative care at a high rate had lower risk of dying in hospital than at home compared with patients who were referred by a physician with an average rate of referral [adjusted odds ratio 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.95; number needed to treat=57 (interquartile range 41-92)] and by a physician with a low rate of referral [adjusted odds ratio 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-0.84; number needed to treat =28 patients (interquartile range 23-44)]. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: An attending physicians' rates of referral to palliative care is associated with a lower risk of dying in hospital. Therefore, patients who are cared for by physicians with higher rates of referral to palliative care are less likely to die in hospital and more likely to die at home. Standardizing referral to palliative care may help reduce physician-level variation as a barrier to access.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".