Abstract MP7: Multicenter Study of Intracranial Hemorrhage and Death Risk and Predictors in the Untreated Course of Brain Arteriovenous Malformation Patients
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Accurate and reliable models of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) risk in the untreated course of brain arteriovenous malformation (BAVM) patients are needed to help weigh the risk-benefit of treatment. We present preliminary estimates of rates and risk factors for ICH or death in the Multicenter AVM Research Study (MARS), which is the largest individual patient data meta-analysis (IPDMA) of cohort studies of unruptured BAVM. Methods: Longitudinal data from 9 cohorts comprising 2,839 unruptured BAVM at time of diagnosis were included: UCSF (n=557), Macquarie (n=462), Kaiser Permanente Northern California (n=354), Columbia (n=335), Barrow Neurological Institute (n=324), Tiantan Hospital (n=303), Mayo Clinic-Rochester (n=244), Scottish Intracranial Vascular Malformation Study (n=194), and Toronto Western Hospital (n=66). Clinical and angiographic data were collected using standardized definitions across cohorts. Cox proportional hazards analysis of time-to-event (ICH or death) in the untreated course after diagnosis was performed, censoring at first treatment or last visit. Baseline hazard rates were stratified by cohort to account for different rates and follow-up times. Results: The combined cohort was 49% female, 72% white race, and 17% Hispanic ethnicity; mean age at diagnosis was 37±17 years and mean follow-up was 3.4±7.0 years. The most common presenting symptom was seizures (43%). Mean AVM size was 3.5±1.9 cm and 46% were Spetzler-Martin grade I-II. Overall, 123 ICH and 131 deaths occurred over 9,608 person-years (PY) for an event rate of 2.64 per 100 PY [95% CI: 2.34-2.99]. Cox regression analyses adjusting for age at diagnosis (HR=1.67 [1.54, 1.82], P<0.001) identified cerebellar location (HR=1.73 [1.03-2.93], P=0.040) and exclusively deep venous drainage (HR=1.83 [1.09-3.09], P=0.022) as predictors. Conclusion: Our current model identified increasing age, exclusively deep venous drainage, and cerebellar location as risk factors for ICH or death in the untreated course of unruptured bAVM patients. Review of imaging data, multiple imputation of missing angioarchitectural data, and additional data from pending cohorts will provide greater power to search for additional risk factors in this ongoing IPDMA.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".