Childhood obesity and multiple sclerosis: A Mendelian randomization study
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Higher childhood body mass index (BMI) has been associated with an increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). Objective: To evaluate whether childhood BMI has a causal influence on MS, and whether this putative effect is independent from early adult obesity and pubertal timing. Methods: We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) using summary genetic data on 14,802 MS cases and 26,703 controls. Large-scale genome-wide association studies provided estimates for BMI in childhood ( n = 47,541) and adulthood ( n = 322,154). In multivariable MR, we examined the direct effects of each timepoint and further adjusted for age at puberty. Findings were replicated using the UK Biobank ( n = 453,169). Results: Higher genetically predicted childhood BMI was associated with increased odds of MS (odds ratio (OR) = 1.26/SD BMI increase, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07–1.50). However, there was little evidence of a direct effect after adjusting for adult BMI (OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.70–1.53). Conversely, the effect of adult BMI persisted independent of childhood BMI (OR = 1.43; 95% CI: 1.01–2.03). The addition of age at puberty did not alter the findings. UK Biobank analyses showed consistent results. Sensitivity analyses provided no evidence of pleiotropy. Conclusion: Genetic evidence supports an association between childhood obesity and MS susceptibility, mediated by persistence of obesity into early adulthood but independent of pubertal timing.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it