An observation-based evaluation and ranking of historical Earth system model simulations in the northwest North Atlantic Ocean
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Continental shelf regions in the ocean play an important role in the global cycling of carbon and nutrients, but their responses to global change are understudied. Global Earth system models (ESMs), as essential tools for building understanding of ocean biogeochemistry, are used extensively and routinely for projections of future climate states; however, their relatively coarse spatial resolution is likely not appropriate for accurately representing the complex patterns of circulation and elemental fluxes on the shelves along ocean margins. Here, we compared 29 ESMs used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Assessment Reports (ARs) 5 and 6 and a regional biogeochemical model for the northwest North Atlantic (NWA) shelf to assess their ability to reproduce surface observations of temperature, salinity, nitrate and chlorophyll. The NWA region is biologically productive, influenced by the large-scale Gulf Stream and Labrador Current systems and particularly sensitive to climatically induced changes in large-scale circulation. Most ESMs compare relatively poorly to observed surface nitrate and chlorophyll and show differences with observed surface temperature and salinity that suggest spatial mismatches in their large-scale current systems. Model-simulated nitrate and chlorophyll compare better with available observations in AR6 than in AR5, but none of the models perform equally well for all four parameters. The ensemble means of all ESMs, and of the five best-performing ESMs, strongly underestimate observed chlorophyll and nitrate. The regional model has a much higher spatial resolution and reproduces the observations significantly better than any of the ESMs. It also simulates reasonably well vertically resolved observations from gliders and bi-monthly ship-based monitoring observations. A ranking of the ESMs indicates that only one ESM has good and consistent performance for all variables. An additional evaluation of the ESMs along the regional model boundaries shows larger variability but is generally consistent with the ranking on the shelf. Overall, 11 ESMs were deemed satisfactory for use in the NWA, either directly or for regional downscaling.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".