Prediction of encephalopathy in perinatal asphyxia score: reaching the unreached
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Neonates who develop moderate to severe encephalopathy following perinatal asphyxia will benefit from therapeutic hypothermia. Current National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) criteria for identifying encephalopathic neonates needing therapeutic hypothermia has high specificity. This results in correctly identifying neonates who have already developed moderate to severe encephalopathy but miss out many potential beneficiaries who progress to develop moderate to severe encephalopathy later. The need is therefore not just to diagnose encephalopathy, but to predict development of encephalopathy and extend the therapeutic benefit for all eligible neonates. The primary objective of the study was to develop and validate the statistical model for prediction of moderate to severe encephalopathy following perinatal asphyxia and compare with current NICHD criteria. METHODS: The study was designed as prospective observational study. It was carried out in a single center Level 3 perinatal unit in India. Neonates>35 weeks of gestation and requiring resuscitation at birth were included. Levels of resuscitation and blood gas lactate were used to determine the pre-test probability, Thompson score between 3 and 5 h of life was used to determine post-test probability of developing encephalopathy. Primary outcome measure: Validation of Prediction of Encephalopathy in Perinatal Asphyxia (PEPA) score by Holdout method. RESULTS: A total of 55 babies were included in the study. The PEPA score was validated by Holdout method where the fitted receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) area for the training and test sample were comparable (p=0.758). The sensitivity and specificity of various PEPA scores for prediction of encephalopathy ranged between 74 and 100% in contrast to NICHD criteria which was 42%. PEPA score of 30 had a best combination of sensitivity and specificity of 95 and 89% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: PEPA score has a higher sensitivity than NICHD criteria for prediction of Encephalopathy in asphyxiated neonates.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".