Rising Incidence of Childhood Intussusception in Ontario: A Population-Based Study From 1997-2016
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background Intussusception is the most common cause of bowel obstruction in children aged 3 months to 6 years of age. We sought to describe patterns of incident childhood intussusception. Methods A retrospective longitudinal cohort study utilizing population-based health administrative data and a validated case definition was used to identify patients <18 years of age treated for intussusception between January 1, 1997 and December 31, 2016 in Ontario, Canada. Descriptive statistics, graphical analyses, and a Poisson regression model were performed for trend analysis. Results The overall incidence of intussusception in Ontario children (<18 years) was 3.3 cases/100,000 child years (cyrs), 95% CI [3.2.3.5]. The overall incidence increased from .9 cases/100,000 cyrs to 2.3 cases/100,000 cyrs. The highest incidence was in children aged 6-12 months at 28.9 cases/100,000 cyrs, 95% CI [26.2.31.9]. Incidence increased in all age-groups between 6 months and 5 years (at a rate of 5% to 16% per year; all P < .05). Month of year did not predict intussusception counts in a log-linear Poisson models, nor did rotavirus immunization implementation in 2011. There was a 3-fold variability across geographic areas in the province. There was a high rate of readmission for recurrence within 1 year (10.7%). Conclusion The incidence of intussusception more than doubled in Ontario from 1997 to 2016. The incidence increased for children aged between 6 months and 5 years at a rate of 5-16% per year, suggesting that an increased rate of idiopathic intussusception is responsible for the increase in the province.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".