Blood Lead Declines in Wintering American Black Ducks in New Jersey Following the Lead Shot Ban
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Waterfowl managers first recognized the problem of lead poisoning in ducks from the ingestion of spent lead shot (pellets) over 100 years ago. The phaseout of lead shot for waterfowl hunting began in the Atlantic Flyway in the 1970s. Lead shot was subsequently banned throughout the United States and Canada prior to 2000. We compared blood lead levels in American black ducks Anas rubripes wintering in coastal New Jersey in 1978, prior to the lead ban, and in 2017, about 39 years after lead shot was first banned for use in Atlantic coastal marshes and 27 years after it was banned for waterfowl hunting in New Jersey. The prevalence of blood lead >0.2 ppm, a level commonly used to indicate lead exposure, declined nearly fourfold from 1978 (79%) to 2017 (20%). We found no significant differences in the prevalence of birds with blood lead levels >0.2 ppm between sexes in either year or between age classes in 2017. The prevalence of ducks with blood lead levels >1.0 ppm, considered clinically evident toxicity, declined from 19% in 1978 to 1% in 2017. Our study provides further evidence that the ban on the use of lead shot over 20 years ago throughout North America has resulted in lower blood lead levels in waterfowl. Notwithstanding, we still found evidence of lead exposure in black ducks in 2017, which warrants further investigation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".