Comparative Analysis of Molecular and Serologic Testing for Primary Syphilis: A Population-Based Cohort Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Rising rates of syphilis ( T. pallidum; Tp ) requires rapid diagnosis and treatment to manage the growing epidemic. Syphilis serology is imperfect and requires interpretation of multiple tests while molecular diagnostics allows for potential yes-no identification of highly infective, primary anogenital lesions. Accuracy of this testing modality has thus far been limited to small, highly selective studies. Therefore, we retrospectively assessed a large, adult population of patients with anogenital lesions seen at Sexually Transmitted Infection (STI) clinics in Alberta, Canada who were screened for syphilis and herpes simplex (HSV) 1/2 using PCR to evaluate Tp- PCR versus serology to diagnose primary syphilis. 114 (3.1%) of the 3,600 adult patients had at least one Tp -PCR+ anogenital lesion with 99 (2.8%) patients having newly positive syphilis serology (new INNO-LIA positive or 4-fold RPR increase). Tp- PCR had a sensitivity of 49.3% (95% CI 42.6-56.1) and specificity of 99.9% (99.7-100.0). Positive predictive values and negative predictive values in the study population or when corrected for provincial prevalence were 97.4% (92.5-99.5) or 0.4% (0.4-1.2) and 96.7% (96.1-97.3) or 100.0% (100.0-100.0), respectively. Positive and negative likelihood ratios were estimated at 555 (178-1733) and 0.5 (0.4-0.6), respectively. Review of all Tp -PCR performed with or without exclusion of HSV-positive lesions resulted in no significant change in Tp- PCR characteristics. Interestingly, 12 of the Tp- PCR+ samples had negative serology at time of lesion sampling but became positive within our 28-day testing window. Overall, this study further supports the use of Tp- PCR as an accurate assay to rapidly identify, treat, and prevent the spread of primary syphilis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".