Lagged recovery of fish spatial distributions following a cold-water perturbation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Anomalous local temperature and extreme events (e.g. heat-waves) can cause rapid change and gradual recovery of local environmental conditions. However, few studies have tested whether species distribution can recover following returning environmental conditions. Here, we tested for change and recovery of the spatial distributions of two flatfish populations, American plaice (Hippoglossoides platessoides) and yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea), in response to consecutive decreasing and increasing water temperature on the Grand Bank off Newfoundland, Canada from 1985 to 2018. Using a Vector Autoregressive Spatiotemporal model, we found the distributions of both species shifted southwards following a period when anomalous cold water covered the northern sections of the Grand Bank. After accounting for density-dependent effects, we observed that yellowtail flounder re-distributed northwards when water temperature returned and exceeded levels recorded before the cold period, while the spatial distribution of American plaice has not recovered. Our study demonstrates nonlinear effects of an environmental factor on species distribution, implying the possibility of irreversible (or hard-to-reverse) changes of species distribution following a rapid change and gradual recovery of environmental conditions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".