Association vs. Prediction: The Impact of Cortical Surface Smoothing and Parcellation on Brain Age
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Association and prediction studies of the brain target the biological consequences of aging and their impact on brain function. Such studies are conducted using different smoothing levels and parcellations at the preprocessing stage, on which their results are dependent. However, the impact of these parameters on the relationship between association values and prediction accuracy is not established. In this study, we used cortical thickness and its relationship with age to investigate how different smoothing and parcellation levels affect the detection of age-related brain correlates as well as brain age prediction accuracy. Our main measures were resel numbers—resolution elements—and age-related variance explained. Using these common measures enabled us to directly compare parcellation and smoothing effects in both association and prediction studies. In our sample of N = 608 participants with age range 18–88, we evaluated age-related cortical thickness changes as well as brain age prediction. We found a negative relationship between prediction performance and correlation values for both parameters. Our results also quantify the relationship between delta age estimates obtained based on different processing parameters. Furthermore, with the direct comparison of the two approaches, we highlight the importance of correct choice of smoothing and parcellation parameters in each task, and how they can affect the results of the analysis in opposite directions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.013 | 0.069 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".