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A Hierarchical Framework for Assessing Transmission Causality of Respiratory Viruses<strong> </strong>

2021· preprint· en· W3159027417 on OpenAlexaff
Tom Jefferson, Carl Heneghan, Elizabeth Spencer, Jon Brassey, Annete Pluddeman, Igho Onakpoya, David H. Evans, John Conly

Bibliographic record

VenuePreprints.org · 2021
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicRespiratory viral infections research
Canadian institutionsCalgary Laboratory ServicesAlberta Health ServicesUniversity of Alberta
Fundersnot available
KeywordsTransmission (telecommunications)Causality (physics)HierarchyStandardizationConsistency (knowledge bases)PandemicMedicineBiologyVirologyComputer scienceCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)DiseasePolitical scienceArtificial intelligenceTelecommunicationsPathology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

We propose a hierarchical framework based on our experience of systematically reviewing and synthesizing 378 primary studies for an evidence-based update of the modes of transmission for SARS-CoV-2. These studies revealed significant methodological shortcomings with a lack of standardization in the design, conduct, testing and reporting of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. While this situation is in part excusable at the outset of a pandemic, evidence rules of proof for assessing the transmission of this virus are needed for this and future pandemics of viral respiratory pathogens. We review the history of causality assessment related to microbial etiologies with a focus on respiratory viruses and suggest a hierarchy of evidence to integrate clinical, epidemiologic, molecular and laboratory perspectives on transmission. The hierarchy, if applied to future studies, should narrow the uncertainty over the twin concepts of causality and transmission of human respiratory viruses. We attempt to address the translational gap between the current research evidence and the assessment of causality in the transmission of respiratory viruses with a focus on SARS-CoV-2. Experimentation, consistency and independent replication of research alongside our proposed framework provide a chain of evidence that can reduce the uncertainty over the transmission of respiratory viruses and increase the level of confidence in specific modes of transmission and the measures that should be undertaken to prevent transmission

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.004
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.005
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Research integrity, Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesResearch integrity
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.137
Threshold uncertainty score0.999

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0040.005
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0020.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.002
Research integrity0.0020.005
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.264
GPT teacher head0.472
Teacher spread0.208 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.

Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations12
Published2021
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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