Scenario planning tools for mitigating industrial impacts on First Nations subsistence economies in British Columbia, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The Montney Play Trend (MPT) is a 1090 km2region in northeast British Columbia that produces approximately one-third of western Canada’s natural gas output. In response to a proposed expansion of the MPT in 2016, the Government of British Columbia launched a Regional Strategic Environmental Assessment (RSEA) to identify the necessary conditions to achieve sustainable environmental outcomes. In this paper, we describe the methods and scenario planning tools that were developed to estimate how the development of the MPT might affect the subsistence economies of First Nations in the region. To demonstrate the utility of our approach, two impact assessments—Prince Rupert gas transmission pipeline and the Coastal GasLink pipeline—are presented. While no scenario can provide a definitive portrayal of exactly what will happen in the future, the tools that were co-developed are serving as an effective starting point for exploring possibilities that are at least consistent with current knowledge and can serve as a platform for collaborative learning and conflict management.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".