Estimating flying-fox mortality associated with abandonments of pups and extreme heat events during the austral summer of 2019–20
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Mass mortalities in flying-foxes occur in summers that reach extremely hot temperatures. In this study, we examine the spatiotemporal distributions of mortality from pup abandonments and extreme heat events in Australian flying-fox camps during the 2019–20 summer. We recorded data on flying-fox mortality in known affected camps and applied a standard method to estimate the number of deaths. Pup mortalities from abandonments were recorded in 10 camps in New South Wales. A minimum estimate of 2612 flying-foxes died in pup abandonments, the majority of which occurred in one camp in Bomaderry. Die-offs from extreme heat events were recorded in 40 camps associated with eight separate heat events in south-eastern Australia. A minimum estimate of 72 175 flying-foxes died during these heat events, which all occurred within the range of the threatened grey-headed flying-fox (Pteropus poliocephalus). Further, 409 and 2251 live flying-foxes were taken into care from pup abandonments and heat events respectively. The minimum mortality estimated represents the highest recorded mortality of Australian flying-foxes within a single summer. This highlights a need to restore vegetation in flying-fox foraging areas and camps, address anthropogenic climate change and gather more empirical data to inform heat stress interventions to minimise flying-fox mortalities.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".