A Data-Efficient Approach to Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation Disaggregation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
With the emergence of cost effective battery storage and the decline in the solar photovoltaic (PV) levelized cost of energy (LCOE), the number of behind-the-meter solar PV systems is expected to increase steadily. The ability to estimate solar generation from these latent systems is crucial for a range of applications, including distribution system planning and operation, demand response, and non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM). This paper investigates the problem of disaggregating solar generation from smart meter data when historical disaggregated data from the target home is unavailable, and deployment characteristics of the PV system are unknown. The proposed approach entails inferring the physical characteristics from smart meter data and disaggregating solar generation using an iterative algorithm. This algorithm takes advantage of solar generation data (aka proxy measurements) from a few sites that are located in the same area as the target home, and solar generation data synthesized using a physical PV model. We evaluate our methods with 4 different proxy settings on around 160 homes in the United States and Australia, and show that the solar disaggregation accuracy is improved by 32.31% and 15.66% over two state-of-the-art methods using only one real proxy along with three synthetic proxies. Furthermore, we demonstrate that using the disaggregated home load rather than the net load data could improve the overall accuracy of three popular NILM methods by at least 22%.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".