Modelling the sedimentary response to orbital variations. 
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Carbonate-rich middle Eocene sedimentary sequences are relatively scarce, hampering the reconstruction of paleoclimate dynamics within this high-CO2 world. Nevertheless, the Newfoundland Ridge (North-Atlantic Ocean) hosts a unique sedimentary archive of middle Eocene paleoceanographic change at astronomical 104-year resolution. International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Sites U1408 and U1410 exhibit well-defined lithologic alternations between calcareous ooze and clay-rich intervals, occurring at the obliquity beat and associated with changing intensities of Northern Component Water (NCW) formation (Vahlenkamp et al., 2018). These lithological variations are captured by the calcium-iron ratio (Ca/Fe) proxy as a measure of carbonate content. Yet, the asymmetric shape of the Ca/Fe cycles immediately reflects a strong non-linear response to the sinusoidal obliquity forcing. To explore the causes of this non-linearity, we built a simple physically-motivated and time-dependent model that simulates the sedimentary response at IODP Sites U1408 and U1410 between 46 and 42 million years ago. dy/dt = 1/T (bx – y) The orbital input x constitutes of an insolation gradient during boreal winter (more specifically at winter solstice), as NCW formation is a high northern latitude winter process that depends on the Atlantic interhemispheric temperature gradient (Karas et al., 2017; Vahlenkamp et al., 2018). The latitudes between which the insolation gradient x is calculated is not user-prescribed but part of the parametrization of the model. Two further parameters define the model. The characteristic time constant T accelerates (T < 1) or slows the response to the forcing (T > 1), whereas the base of the exponential-response term b determines the degree of non-linearity in the system. We explored this four-space first with a coarse and then with a finer mesh, and found that the optimum model lies in the neighbourhood of the following values: latitudinal gradient between 63°N and 31°S, T = 4.94 kyr, b = 2.13. The corresponding system reproduces the asymmetric shape of the Ca/Fe cycles, while also exhibiting precession-obliquity interference patterns that occur in the proxy series. These kind of simple modelling efforts hold the potential to refine our mechanistic understanding of the Earth System response to astronomical forcing in the deep and warmer-than-present geologic past. Karas et al. (2017) Pliocene oceanic seaways and global climate. Scientific Reports 7: 39842 Vahlenkamp et al. (2018) Astronomically paced changes in deep-water circulation in the western North Atlantic during the middle Eocene. Earth and Planetary Science Letter 484: 329 – 340.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".