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Record W3164368877 · doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10233

Distinguishing between hurricane and tsunami deposition using modern analogues from Anegada, British Virgin Islands (BVI)

2021· article· en· W3164368877 on OpenAlexaff
Jessica E. Pilarczyk, Michaela Spiske, Stephen Mitchell

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEarth and Planetary Sciences
Topicearthquake and tectonic studies
Canadian institutionsSimon Fraser University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsStormStorm surgeDeposition (geology)ErosionGeologyOceanographyTrenchCoastal erosionSedimentGeomorphology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Tsunamis and land-falling hurricanes pose an economic and environmental hazard to coastlines of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Patterns of their frequency and intensity remain unclear in part because detailed long-term records are limited to only a few locations, but also because of uncertainties associated with interpreting the geologic record (e.g., preservation/erosion of older deposits, distinguishing between storm and tsunami deposition). The seemingly unprecedented generation of four intense storms during the 2017 hurricane season highlights the uncertainty surrounding the geographic and temporal controls on hurricanes in the Atlantic region. Similarly, the historical record and recent modeling studies indicate that the region is susceptible to both far-field (e.g., 1755 Lisbon tsunami) and near-field (e.g., originating from the Puerto Rico trench) tsunamis. We improve upon this uncertainty by comparing the sedimentological characteristics of two modern analogues from Anegada, BVI: sediments deposited by the 1755 Lisbon tsunami and those deposited in 2017 by Hurricane Irma. The 1755 Lisbon tsunami sediments were collected from hypersaline ponds via trenching and shovel cores. The Hurricane Irma sediments were collected during a post-event survey of Anegada four months after the storm tracked 35 km south of the BVI as a Category 5 system. During this survey, we investigated the coastal areas affected by Hurricane Irma in an effort to: (1) document the storm surge parameters and associated sedimentary deposits of a known Category 5 hurricane; (2) assess the depth of scour and distance of sediment transport by storm surge; and (3) use the Hurricane Irma deposit as a basis for comparison with older overwash records, including a series of inferred tsunami deposits (e.g., 1755 Lisbon tsunami) preserved within coastal ponds. The Lisbon tsunami deposited a laterally-extensive graded shell-rich layer composed of medium to coarse sand and abundant Homotrema, an easily recognisable foraminifer with a defined provenance in the reef. Hurricane Irma’s storm surge reached a maximum flow depth of up to 3 m and deposition was limited to thin (<40 cm) lobes of sand consisting of well-sorted fine to medium Homotrema-bearing carbonate sand. Homotrema is a red organism that bleaches and rounds predictably following detachment from the reef. Intertidal mollusks were observed in lobate sediment fans deposited by Hurricane Irma on the southern side of the island, whereas sand sheets with faint laminations were found in trenches along the northern and western coastlines. While similar in terms of composition, the tsunami and hurricane deposit were slightly different in terms of Homotrema taphonomy (preservation state of individual Homotrema fragments). The 1755 Lisbon deposit contains high abundances of Homotrema that are generally large (250-500 μm) and vibrantly coloured, suggesting scouring and transport by tsunami, followed by rapid burial on the coast. In contrast, the Hurricane Irma deposit contains bleached and non-bleached Homotrema in near equal proportions, suggesting that the sediment was sourced from the fringing reef to the north of the island as well as the reef flat. Constraining the origin of overwash deposits at this location is essential to the establishment of effective coastal hazard mitigation policies.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.706
Threshold uncertainty score0.591

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.003
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.023
GPT teacher head0.223
Teacher spread0.200 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2021
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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