FC 067WHEN TO INITIATE DIALYSIS TO REDUCE MORTALITY AND CARDIOVASCULAR EVENTS IN ADVANCED CKD: A NATIONWIDE COHORT STUDY
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background and Aims There is currently no direct evidence to inform a specific glomerular filtration rate (GFR) to initiate maintenance dialysis. Previous studies are limited by the number of kidney function thresholds compared, immortal time or lead time biases, or small sample sizes. The only randomised trial (IDEAL) found no difference between early versus late start, but confidence intervals were wide. Method Nationwide observational cohort study using data from the Swedish Renal Registry between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2016, with follow-up until June 1, 2017. Included individuals were receiving nephrologist care and had an eGFR between 10-20 ml/min/1.73m2. A randomized trial was emulated using the cloning, censoring and weighting method. Our primary analysis compared late (at an eGFR 5-7 ml/min/1.73m2 [eGFR5-7]), intermediate (eGFR7-10) and early (eGFR10-14) dialysis initiation to validate our analytical methods by comparison with IDEAL. Our secondary analysis compared fifteen dialysis initiation strategies with eGFR values ranging between 4 and 19 ml/min/1.73m2 in increments of 1 ml/min/1.73m2. Study outcomes were 5-year all-cause mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; composite of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction and stroke). Adjusted hazard ratios [HR] and cumulative survival proportions were estimated using a dynamic marginal structural model. Results Among 10,290 individuals with advanced CKD (median age 73 years; 36% women; median eGFR 16.8 ml/min/1.73m2), 3725 individuals initiated dialysis, 4160 died and 2446 experienced MACE. In trial emulation, the 5-year mortality risk was 53.0% for eGFR5-7, 50.3% for eGFR7-10 and 49.7% for eGFR10-14. Compared with eGFR5-7, the 5-year absolute mortality risk difference was -2.7% (95% CI, -4.6% to -0.7%) for eGFR7-10 and -3.3% (95% CI, -5.2% to -1.3%) for eGFR10-14, with a HR of 0.97 (0.94-0.99) and 0.96 (0.94-0.99), respectively. The 5-year absolute MACE risk differences were -1.1% (95% CI, -3.8% to 2.1%) for eGFR7-10 and -3.6% (95% CI, -6.0% to -1.0%) for eGFR10-14 compared with eGFR5-7, with a HR of 1.00 (0.97-1.04) and 0.96 (0.97-1.00), respectively. When analysing fifteen eGFR thresholds, initiation at eGFR15-16 was associated with the largest reduction in mortality (absolute difference, -5.9% [95% CI, -8.0% to -3.1%]; HR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.85-0.92]) and MACE (absolute difference, -4.5% [95% CI, -7.6% to -1.4%]; HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.89-0.97]), compared with eGFR4-5. This -5.9% absolute risk difference translates to a mean postponement of death of 1.8 months over 5-years of follow-up. However, dialysis would need to be initiated on average 14 months earlier. Conclusion Early dialysis initiation was associated with a modest reduction in mortality and cardiovascular events. Such a reduction may not outweigh the burden of longer dialysis treatment duration for the patient.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".